Shane Crawford is tipping the Eagles to snatch this year's flag. Picture: Michael Dodge Source: HWT Image Library
Season 2013 looms as a battle of the birds as the Eagles, Hawks, Magpies and Swans loom large in the fight for the premiership. But another team out west is also gathering forces to make a charge. Hawthorn premiership star and Brownlow medallist SHANE CRAWFORD reveals his thoughts for the year ahead/
THERE'S been a mining boom out west.
And by the end of September the AFL's most precious piece of metal might also be heading back across the Nullarbor.
I'm tipping West Coast to win the premiership and Fremantle to finish on top of the home-and-away ladder.
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Collingwood and Hawthorn might be the only teams capable of stopping an all-West Australian Grand Final, with last year's premier, Sydney, some chance as well.
>> SCROLL DOWN TO SEE CRAWF'S TAKE ON YOUR CLUB
But the predictions aren't all that bad for local fans. Richmond is geared up for a taste of September _ finally.
The Tigers have tempted and teased us for a number of years. Now is the time to deliver.
It's tough to make the finals in a season in which up to 13 teams are a realistic chance, but there should be no excuses at Punt Rd this time around.
Only a finals berth will do for Damien Hardwick and his players.
It wasn't that long ago that the Eagles and the Dockers were struggling. Both teams missed the finals in 2009 and a year later John Worsfold's team finished on the bottom of the ladder.
Their stock prospects had plummeted.
Now you could say WA football is right in the middle of a Bull market and Worsfold and Ross Lyon would feel excited by their team's chances.
Champion Eagles ruckman Dean Cox carries a huge amount of responsibility as Nic Naitanui recovers from groin surgery. Cox is up for the challenge.
I've settled on a West Coast-Collingwood Grand Final, but it would not surprise me if the Dockers made it an all-Perth playoff.
Hawthorn was my original tip for the flag, but I've changed.
I hope the Hawks win it, but the loss of Matt Suckling, a disappointing pre-season and the potential distraction of Buddy Franklin not signing a contract might hurt their chances.
Sportsbet opened the Hawks at $4 after the 2012 Grand Final, but they have drifted out to $4.75 and the bookies have barely been able to write a ticket for them.
Collingwood has been very steady, while the team that beat the Magpies on Friday, Geelong has attracted interest.
But, for me, the Eagles are the real deal and they are perfectly placed to secure their fourth AFL flag.
CRAWF'S HOME-AND-AWAY LADDER
Pos Team Wins
1. Fremantle 15-18
2. Collingwood 15-18
3. West Coast 15-18
4. Hawthorn 15-18
5. Sydney 15-18
6. Carlton 12-15
7. Geelong 12-15
8. Richmond 12-15
---------------------------------
9. Adelaide 12-15
10. North Melbourne 12-15
11. Essendon 11-13
12. St Kilda 11-13
13. Brisbane Lions 9-12
14. Melbourne 6-8
15. Port Adelaide 5-7
16. Western Bulldogs 5-7
17. Gold Coast 3-5
18. Greater Western Sydney 2-5
FIVE THINGS CRAWF WANTS TO SEE IN 2013
1. AFL grounds to allocate more parking spots for players. They should be top priority.
2. Richmond to make the finals again which would get the Tiger army roaring.
3. Buddy Franklin to re-sign early in the season to take some pressure off the Hawks.
4. Less talk about drugs. Everyone needs to take a chill pill, but not one from a sports scientist.
5. Eddie McGuire to try to get Mick Malthouse to Collingwood after Carlton's flying start to the season.
CRAWF'S 2013 ORDER
1. WEST COAST
BOTTOM LINE: Has the perfect blend of quality players and depth. Solid pick-ups in Sharrod Wellingham and Cale Morton. Mark Le Cras back is a bonus.
WORRY: Saw Nic Naitanui train during the week. Plenty of attention on whether his groin will be right to go early in the season.
ONE TO WATCH: Andrew Gaff is on the verge of becoming elite. His running ability and skills a bonus, particularly on home track.
UNDER THE PUMP: Harsh call, but Wellingham wouldn't want to be jumping on any trampolines in a hurry. The coach will be watching.
PASS MARK: A Grand Final appearance.
West Coast recruit Sharrod Wellingham. Picture: Will Russell Source: The Sunday Times
2. COLLINGWOOD
BOTTOM LINE: Top-four certainty; real premiership chance. Will have better grasp of Nathan Buckley's game plan in Year 2. Less boundary line work and more through the corridor. A trio of recycled recruits in Clinton Young, Quinten Lynch and Jordan Russell will help, as will the return of Luke Ball.
WORRY: Tough draw with double-up games against last year's Grand Finallists Sydney and Hawthorn. Pressure of expectation means only a flag will do.
ONE TO WATCH: Super impressed with Jamie Elliott. His intensity adds to greatly to the forward line.
UNDER THE PUMP: Alan Didak is likely playing his last season, but how much of how it will pan out depends on how his body stands up.
PASS MARK: A premiership.
3. FREMANTLE
BOTTOM LINE: Extremely fit and well structured. Ross Lyon has missed the finals in only one year of his coaching career. The addition of Brett Kirk as an assistant coach will add even more steel. In the best shape of their short history to challenge for the flag.
WORRY: The Dockers have always relied on Matthew Pavlich to provide most of their goals. It might be a vulnerability, but the flip side to that is that Freo's biggest score of last season - 20 goals against North Melbourne - came when "Pav'' didn't play.
ONE TO WATCH: Lachie Neale could be a surprise packet with his hard running and evasive skills around contested areas.
UNDER THE PUMP: Love Aaron Sandilands, but you have to wonder if he will again enjoy a sustained run free from injury. Expects to play in Round 2.
PASS MARK: Top four.
Fremantle skipper Matthew Pavlich kicked six goals in the elimination final win over Geelong. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun
4. HAWTHORN
BOTTOM LINE: It could be now or never for the Hawks. Brian Lake is a good inclusion to fix back-line weaknesses. The way the 2012 season finished means there should be no shortage of ammunition to drive the Hawks. But does the hunger still burn strongly enough for a number of them?
WORRY: The season-ending injury to Matt Suckling hurts, particularly with Clinton Young gone. And will Lance Franklin's decision to not sign a new deal cause the sort of distraction that derailed Collingwood's season with Travis Cloke last year?
ONE TO WATCH: Bradley Hill looks to be Young's replacement on a wing. Will get a chance to use his running ability to full impact.
UNDER THE PUMP: Luke Hodge is a champion. But his body has copped a pounding. Hopefully he can play often enough - and well enough - to regain his top form.
PASS MARK: A premiership - given what happened last year.
5. SYDNEY
BOTTOM LINE: Hard to see the Swans not being very competitive again. Easy start with games against GWS and Gold Coast. If the kids keep improving and the older players maintain their urgency, back-to-back flags is not beyond them.
WORRY: It will be interesting to see if Kurt Tippett's inclusion upsets the balance in attack, particularly with Sam Reid. Will the hunger be as strong after last year?
ONE TO WATCH: Dan Hannebery almost won a Norm Smith Medal last year. Reckon he could take his game to an even higher level again this year.
UNDER THE PUMP: Tippett. He won't play until midway through the year and will have enormous pressure/attention on him because of his pay.
PASS MARK: Another Grand Final appearance.
The Sydney Swans victorious after the AFL Grand Final 2012. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun
6. CARLTON
BOTTOM LINE: Mick Malthouse has changed everything about Visy Park in six short months. I said all along that Marc Murphy needed to be the skipper and he deserves it. This Carlton outfit will be well drilled and motivated. Look out, Magpies!
WORRY: Tough start against Richmond, Collingwood, Geelong, West Coast and Adelaide. The pressure of making the finals will be intense.
ONE TO WATCH: Levi Casboult applies good pressure and is ready to secure his position with the Carlton forward. Lock him in.
UNDER THE PUMP: Jarrad Waite is super important to the team's structure. But he doesn't play often enough because of injury/suspension. Needs to play 18 games.
PASS MARK: Must make the finals. And probably needs to win one final, too.
7. GEELONG
BOTTOM LINE: How the hell do the Cats keep doing it? Good recruiting and trading (Josh Caddy, Jared Rivers and Hamish McIntosh) and the blooding of 15 new faces over the past two seasons has Geelong in good shape. A seventh straight finals series awaits.
WORRY: Didn't like the way they meekly exited the finals series last year with a loss to Freo. Can the hunger be maintained? Has lost Matthew Scarlett, a once-in-a-generation defender.
ONE TO WATCH: Billie Smedts has a real X-factor with his speed and goal sense.
UNDER THE PUMP: Harsh because he has just joined the club, but plenty of attention will be on Rivers. He's a solid, but he is not Scarlett, and Cats fans need to remember that. He just needs to do his job.
PASS MARK: Win a final.
8. RICHMOND
BOTTOM LINE: Surely, the Tigers can't miss out again. The planets have seemingly aligned this time. It possesses one of the strongest midfields in the AFL, a better backline with Troy Chaplin's inclusion and a dual Coleman Medal winner in attack. As a one-time Tiger fan, surely it is time for another finals appearance.
WORRY: Coach Damien Hardwick knows the team needs to rely less on Jack Riewoldt and to develop more options in attack.
ONE TO WATCH: Dustin Martin has had a big pre-season on the track and hopefully will be putting behind him what was - on his ability - a modest 2012 season.
UNDER THE PUMP: Same as above. Martin was the subject of off-field scrutiny during the pre-season. The pressure will be on him to perform on and off the field.
PASS MARK: Finals and finals only. The fans will be demanding it.
9. ADELAIDE
BOTTOM LINE: Any teams that has Patrick Dangerfield, Taylor Walker and Sam Jacobs is going to be competitive. Been a tough off-season for Adelaide, but coach Brenton Sanderson will be confident the off-field salary cap dramas surrounding Kurt Tippett's departure won't affect his team on the field.
WORRY: Much tougher draw than last year. The Crows got four games as freebies in 2012 with two wins apiece against GWS and Gold Coast. Only two games against the new teams signals a harder run this season.
ONE TO WATCH: Sam Kerridge is ready to become a regular member of this team, having shown some good form in the pre-season. Look for him in the midfield.
UNDER THE PUMP: Richard Tambling is on his last chance. How many times has that been said?
PASS MARK: Making the finals.
10. NORTH MELBOURNE
BOTTOM LINE: Loved the fact the Scott twins came together with North and Geelong training once a week during the pre-season. You cannot beat quality level of match play and that's why both teams might start strongly. The Kangaroos' young list is coming to the right stage of their development.
WORRY: The Roos have the hardest draw in the competition this year _ tough start and tough end. They need to bank some games in the middle to be any chance of making the finals. It won't be easy, but it is not impossible.
ONE TO WATCH: Shaun Atley is ready to move into the midfield. He was fifth in the club's best and fairest last season and has the potential to be a game-breaker.
UNDER THE PUMP: Brent Harvey won't play for the first six weeks. That's a challenge, even for a star such as "Boomer''. Hopefully it won't stop him from making a big impact on 2013.
PASS MARK: Scott will want to replicate the 14 wins of last home-and-away season. Do that and they will make the finals.
11. ESSENDON
BOTTOM LINE: Essendon has a list more than capable of playing finals. Adding Brendon Goddard is a bonus. Joe Daniher might not play at the start of the season, but he will make his mark at some stage. Expect to see Dyson Heppell more in the midfield.
WORRY: The distraction of the ASADA investigation must surely have an impact on the players. It's the variable they cannot control and until they get the all clear - which everyone hopes they will - it will remain the elephant in the room.
ONE TO WATCH: Jake Carlisle is bigger, stronger and can play on the really good forwards. Is a star in the making.
UNDER THE PUMP: Scott Gumbleton was courted by Fremantle in the trading period, but opted to stay with his good mate Jobe Watson. Needs a change of luck with injury to ensure that he will still be at the club next season.
PASS MARK: To get through this mess unscathed; to have a more consistent season overall and to win as many games as they did last season.
Scott Gumbleton marks in front of Ryan Schoenmakers last year. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun
12. ST KILDA
BOTTOM LINE: Did a reasonable job in Scott Watters' first year in the job, to narrowly miss the finals. Reckon if they can be around the same level - and if they can bring through some more kids - it would not be a bad result for the future. Needs to develop future leaders.
WORRY: The loss of Brendon Goddard won't help. Defence remains an area of concern, despite good pressure through the middle of the ground.
ONE TO WATCH: Jack Steven took some good steps forward in the midfield last season. Has the goods to become one of the main attractions.
UNDER THE PUMP: Sam Fisher was the subject of off-field speculation over summer, which he has denied. A super player at his best, injuries and some indifferent form meant he could finish only eighth in the best-and-fairest. Want to see him back to his best.
PASS MARK: To win as many games as last season (12).
13. BRISBANE LIONS
BOTTOM LINE: The Lions are building, as evidenced by their NAB Cup form. For the first time since their premiership years a decade ago, Brisbane has a harder edge to it. Brent Moloney will add to that. Does not have the same talent as the 2001-03 sides, but Michael Voss' team is on the improve.
WORRY: Extremely tough period from Rounds 6-14 with games against Sydney, West Coast, Essendon, Carlton Collingwood, Fremantle, Geelong and Hawthorn. Must win three of those.
ONE TO WATCH: Dayne Zorko looks set to go from SuperCoach cash cow to legitimate star. Love his defensive pressure and tackling.
UNDER THE PUMP: Tough on superstar Jonathan Brown, who was superb in the NAB Cup grand final, but we'd love to see him have a full season without being slowed up by injury.
PASS MARK: Shouldn't be judged on making the finals but needs to win more games than last year (10).
14. MELBOURNE
BOTTOM LINE: The Demons have confused me with their trading and off-loading. They gave up on a few youngsters and brought in a lot of older, capable, but short-term options. There is a touch of Moneyball in Mark Neeld's moves, but it is risky in the long-term. Hopefully the Demons will be more daring and show more flair.
WORRY: The Demons were predictable and slow in their ball movement last year. If that is not rectified, there will be more pain for the long-suffering fans.
ONE TO WATCH: Who else but Jack Viney? He seems almost as hard as his old man Todd was and that's exactly what Melbourne needs.
UNDER THE PUMP: Chris Dawes needs to prove he can get reclaim his 2010 premiership form. His two seasons since have been disappointing.
PASS MARK: Needs to double the four wins it recorded last year.
Jack Viney enjoys his first AFL pre-season. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun
15. PORT ADELAIDE
BOTTOM LINE: A new president, new coach, new captain and a glimmer of hope might be the thing that Port Adelaide needs to make itself relevant again. Ken Hinkley knows it won't be easy and it will be yet another development year. Still, the young kids have talent. They need to cause a few upsets.
WORRY: Port doesn't have enough experienced star quality. Too often they were pushed aside by bigger, stronger, more experienced teams. That won't change overnight.
ONE TO WATCH: Chad Wingard has something about him. I like the way he moves and can find his way through traffic.
UNDER THE PUMP: New skipper Travis Boak is a good player with great promise. He needs to become elite. The captaincy might add some extra pressure on him, but hopefully he comes through and develops into a good leader.
PASS MARK: Should be seeking five to seven wins this season.
16. WESTERN BULLDOGS
BOTTOM LINE: Still a work in progress. The young Dogs need to stick firm to coach Brendan McCartney's game plan and beliefs. Expect McCartney to keep pumping game time into the youngsters, which will be exciting for the fans, as well as frustrating at times. And if players such as Mitch Wallis and Tom Liberatore can keeping improving, the future will look brighter.
WORRY: Torched the ball by hand and by foot last year, especially through the midfield. That's not good enough and must change. Internally, the message has been to stay in games for longer than in 2012.
ONE TO WATCH: Jake Stringer looks a kid of real class. If you didn't see his first touch _ and first goal _ in the NAB Cup, you missed something special.
UNDER THE PUMP: Jordan Roughead will take on the big forwards, but it won't be an easy task as the ball will likely spend plenty of time in the back half. Still, he deserves time and patience to learn the role.
PASS MARK: Improve the effective disposal ratio and the wins will come. McCartney should be pushing for between five and seven wins.
17. GOLD COAST
BOTTOM LINE: The Suns didn't improve last season. If anything, they went backwards. The spotlight will be on coach Guy McKenna. There are no more excuses in 2013.
WORRY: The pressure applied by the Suns to their opponents was embarrassing at times.
ONE TO WATCH: Jaeger O'Meara had to watch a lot of footy last year as he was ineligible to play at the elite level. Now he gets his chance, he won't let anyone down.
UNDER THE PUMP: My old mate Campbell Brown has a delayed start to the final year of his contract with the Suns. He needs a big year to win a new contract and let's hope he achieves that.
PASS MARK: Must double the number of wins in each of the first two seasons. That's six wins for 2013.
Jaeger O'Meara is looking forward to his debut season. Picture: David Clark Source: Gold Coast Bulletin
18. GREATER WESTERN SYDNEY
BOTTOM LINE: Kevin Sheedy will lead the young Giants into his final season as senior coachcom, with the man who will replace him - Leon Cameron - helping to call the shots in the coaches' box. Jon Patton and Jeremy Cameron could be as good as any forward combination in the game in a few years.
WORRY: It might be a tough year _ like the Suns faced in their second season _ but the future remains bright. Has the best young collection of young talent in the country, even if there will be some more painful, one-sided results in the interim.
ONE TO WATCH: Patton showed a few glimpses of what the future looks like at times last season and was impressive at stages of the NAB Cup. A powerful forward, he looks like he will be one of the game's best forwards in a short period of time.
UNDER THE PUMP: Tom Scully is paid a small fortune. Now he has to deliver. Was solid but not spectacular last season. Needs to do more to justify his pay packet.
PASS MARK: Aim to avoid the wooden spoon, even though it looks next to certain. If the Giants can win three or more games, it would be a nice result.
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