Say it ain't so, Buddy? Source: Getty Images
HAWTHORN seems determined not to be the jilted lover left weeping at the altar.
Buddy Franklin is almost certainly gone, a crushing blow some clubs would struggle to recover from.
Yet Hawthorn is a cutting-edge football club in a modern world.
So a club which itself poached Shaun Burgoyne, Jack Gunston, Brian Lake and Josh Gibson will treat his likely departure as a business decision like many it has made before.
How do you replace the game's best forward?
You don't.
But you fight hard for him in a mature manner until he is officially gone.
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And then when all hope is lost you spend that $1 million acquiring someone else to help keep the premiership flame alight.
In the matter of months since last year's off-season Hawthorn's mood has turned from anger, to shock, to quiet realisation.
The anger was apparent when Alastair Clarkson went to Las Vegas to confront Franklin about various issues, and the shock was there when Franklin postponed his deal until season's end.
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Yet the realisation and acceptance has come as Hawthorn has itself done the sums it knows Franklin and his manager Liam Pickering are adding up.
Everything is unofficial half-way through the season: GWS hasn't officially lodged an offer, and Hawthorn isn't officially conceding he is going, the AFL's can't officially countenance that ambassadorial role.
Yet tally the figures, and look at the history of those who have already postponed deals before jumping ship to expansion sides and it is a no-brainer.
Hawthorn's absolute best offer for Franklin has been $4.5 million over four years, an entirely reasonable offer for the game's most exciting player.
The fifth year has not yet been forthcoming - but could be - given the Hawks' question marks over Franklin's durability past 30, again an entirely reasonable query.
Yet their best offer, one that will see them enduring significant salary cap stress, doesn't even come close to the GWS football component.
And that is before any AFL money comes surging through the expansion pipeline.
GWS will have to - and plan to - offer around $1.5 million a season, because Franklin wouldn't leave for $1.2 million a year, which is less than $90,000 a year above their offer.
Lance Franklin marks on the lead at Hawthorn training. Picture: Jay Town Source: Herald Sun
GWS will offer six years and a package worth as much as $12 million over that period because it can, and because it needs to.
It needs a figurehead, it needs instant improvement, it needs a foothold in the competitive New South Wales market.
Hawthorn doesn't need any of those things.
It needs on-field talent and not much else given its off-field millions.
Clarkson is still confident, and said yesterday the status quo remained.
"Nothing has changed from our point of view,'' Clarkson said yesterday.
"Whilst he is contracted to Hawthorn we want to make sure he plays the very best footy he can. The contract stuff will sort itself out in due course.''
The AFL yesterday confirmed the Hawks had no hope of increased free agency compensation, which means the club would receive just pick 20 in exchange.
AFL executive Andrew Dillon told the Herald Sun: "The AFL executive has not yet had a final discussion but it is extremely unlikely there would be any change to the compensation formula after just one year of its operation, either to increase it or decrease it.''
Hawthorn not only believes its fan-base would not revolt if Franklin departed, there is an inner steel among insiders about their prospects without the spearhead.
Franklin is not 27 until January, and has perhaps another two years at his absolute peak.
Yet with his penchant for off-field fun, his form fluctuations, and the reality key forwards rarely fire post-30, Hawthorn wouldn't come close to matching that six-year deal.
Franklin still leads the team in goals, but the match-winning performances of previous years are rarer.
And consider the goal spread - Franklin (31), Jarryd Roughead (31), Luke Breust (20), Jack Gunston (15), Shaun Burgoyne (14), Cyril Rioli (12 from five games) and David Hale (nine).
They would be diminished without Franklin, but if they could afford a Stewart Crameri and a Mark LeCras, does anyone doubt Hawthorn would still contend?
The best result all round: Buddy and Franklin get their second premiership together on the last Saturday of September, and both parties move on amicably.
LANCE FRANKLIN'S OPTIONS
1. Lance Franklin stays.
Franklin makes the decision thousands have made before him _ that team success is bigger than any pay cheque. The problem for Franklin is that the difference in pay cheques is bigger than that faced by anyone in his position.
This option seems to be evaporating by the day, but it would make him a Hawthorn hero forever.
CHANCE: 10 per cent. Even this is probably optimistic.
Lance Franklin has put contract talks with Hawthorn on hold until the end of the season. Picture: Wayne Ludbey Source: Herald Sun
2. Lance Franklin nominates Greater Western Sydney as his free agency home and Hawthorn FAILS to match it.
If Buddy nominates GWS, Hawthorn has 48 hours to match the bid. The bid would include only the football component of the deal.
Free agency starts on September 30, two days after the Grand Final.
So Franklin could be a Grand Final hero for Hawthorn on the Saturday, nominate GWS on the Monday and be a Giant by the Wednesday.
He can nominate only one team, and Hawthorn has to match the exact offer in its total player payments year by year, even if it is heavily front-ended.
Hawthorn has handed Franklin's management its best offer, so this is the most likely outcome.
CHANCE: 80 per cent. Becoming increasingly certain. No one who has scrutinised precedent or the figures in front of Franklin really believes he will stay.
3. Lance Franklin nominates GWS as his free agency home and Hawthorn DOES match it.
This is the least likely outcome, but it is still possible.
The Hawks could match the $1.5 million football offer, then go about trying to fit Franklin in whatever the cost.
It would result in the jettisoning or trading of key out-of-contract players, with Hawthorn needing to save as much as $400,000 a season.
Because even second-year players can be paid up to $100,000, it would need to cut a $500,000-a-season player such as Jordan Lewis or Shaun Burgoyne.
This is completely untenable to Alastair Clarkson, who will not toy with his playing culture or toss a player to the wind just for Franklin's pay packet. That would send the worst message to a playing list that has sacrificed plenty before.
CHANCE: Zero per cent. Hawthorn can't afford $1.5 million a year for one player.
4. Hawthorn matches Franklin's free agency offer, then tries to trade him.
Theoretically the Hawks could call GWS's bluff, matching the offer even though it has no intention of paying the $1.5 million a year.
Then with Franklin still listed, they could go back to GWS and try to broker a trade that could involve a higher draft pick than the likely pick 20 they would have received in free agency compensation.
Two problems:
GWS could call Hawthorn's bluff back, leaving them with a player they could not afford.
And Hawthorn would not do it, believing it would send an atrocious message to the rest of the playing group.
They remain adamant: If Franklin wants to be here we will pay him what he is worth .th.th. if not, he can leave for the highest bidder.
Any player who has their free agency bid matched can remain with his original club, seek a trade, or enter the draft. So even if Franklin's bid was matched, he could enter the pre-season draft with a huge price on his head and be picked up by GWS for nothing.
CHANCE: Zero per cent. If Franklin wants to go to GWS that desperately, Hawthorn won't chase him.
2012 Preliminary Final. Hawthorn v Adelaide Crows. MCG. Lance Franklin celebrates on the siren as the hawks win. Source: Herald Sun
5. Hawthorn tries to trade Franklin before the free agency period.
This would require Franklin to be extremely proactive, telling GWS he would be happy to accept its offer but only if it sweetened the deal for his existing club.
In reality, GWS would tell Hawthorn no deal.
Whey should it have to hand over draft picks when it didn't for Tom Scully, and Gold Coast didn't for Gary Ablett?
Franklin will be reassured by his management that the reason compo picks were introduced was to help the club a player leaves.
He has given eight years of service to Hawthorn _ that is enough reward.
CHANCE: Five per cent. If Hawthorn knew Franklin wanted to leave, they might at least make the call to GWS. The call would be succinct and pointless.
6. A rival club swoops in at the last minute and trumps GWS.
The only small chance would be Gold Coast.
It has the salary cap room but probably not the AFL marketing support, given Gary Ablett and Karmichael Hunt already are paid by the league.
The Suns admit it would cost them at least two quality players, and with Charlie Dixon, Tom Lynch, Sam Day and Stephen May emerging as key talls, they don't really need him.
No Victorian side can afford even the $1.5 million-a-season football component, let alone the marketing allowance.
Fremantle chief executive Steve Rosich did not rule out that club's interest several months back, but Ross Lyon says now he has no interest and has told Alastair Clarkson that. It would be the height of hypocrisy to back-flip.
CHANCE: Five per cent. If Day and Dixon both did their ACLs in the next ten weeks, Gold Coast could change its mind. But right now they are saying they don't want Buddy.
BEST FIVE FREE AGENTS:
1. Dale Thomas (Collingwood)
2. Mark LeCras (West Coast)
3. Colin Sylvia (Melbourne)
4. Eddie Betts (Carlton)
5. Alan Toovey (Collingwood)
BEST KEY TALLS OFF CONTRACT
1. Jack Riewoldt (Richmond)
2. Stewart Crameri (Essendon)
3. Jay Schulz (Port Adelaide)
4. Shane Mumford (Sydney)
5. Jack Watts (Melbourne)
6. Mitch Brown (West Coast)
7. Scott Gumbleton (Essendon)
8. Tayte Pears (Essendon)
9. Max Gawn (Melbourne)
10. Majak Daw (North Melbourne)
Richmond forward Jack Riewoldt celebrates his fifth goal against St Kilda. Picture: Ludbey Wayne Source: Herald Sun
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